Recent Oscar seasons have typically been long, drawn-out affairs where everyone knows who’s going to win far before the actual Academy Awards ceremony. Not this year, though.

Thanks to a wide number of Oscar hopefuls, this year’s roundup of nominees is proving difficult to pin down. The only thing certain? Seth MacFarlane’s turn as Oscar host will likely be as infamous as David Letterman’s 18 years ago. (Seriously, Tina Fey and Amy Poehler raised the bar for award shows at this year’s Golden Globes.)

In any case, we’re excited for this year’s ceremony—so much, in fact, that (shameless plug) we’re throwing a party at Ten Atlanta on Oscar night. We’re also bringing you our second annual head-to-head debate over who we think will win, should win, and who’s unfortunately left out. In particular, you’ll be seeing a lot of mentions of The Perks of Being a Wallflower. So whether you’re at our party, watching with a group elsewhere, or viewing this year’s ceremony from the comfort of your couch, here’s your chance to get inside the mind of a couple of film buffs who’ve seen all the nominees, so you don’t have to!

Best Picture

Nominees

Amour
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Django Unchained
Les Misérables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty

E: Last year, the Academy went from 10 nominees per year to a sliding scale of anywhere between five and 10 nominees. Like last year, the final slate ended up having nine nominees.

A month ago, this category was a tough one to predict. Right now, though, it seems like Argo will win. Do you agree?

J: Totally agree. For me, Argo tied with Silver Linings Playbook as my favorite film of the year. I loved thatSilver Linings was quirky, but really had a serious side. Argo, though, was an edge-of-my-seat thrill ride, with great performances throughout the film.

E: It’ll be interesting to see if Argo pulls off a Best Picture win. Oscar history is against a win. The last film to win Best Picture without a Best Director nomination: 1989’s Driving Miss Daisy. It’s really not the frontrunner in any other category, and the last film of three total to win this award without winning another award was 1935’s Mutiny on the Bounty.

Finally, Argo is following a path very similar to Apollo 13, which swept the Oscar precursors, only to lose toBraveheart on Oscar night.

J: Do you think Lincoln has a shot here?

E: Maybe, but I wouldn’t bet heavily on it. Going back to the Apollo 13–Braveheart line-up: Braveheart was one of the first films to make use of screeners for voters, which helped more people see it. These days, everyone has access to plenty of ways to watch nominated films.

J: Do you think people will vote for Argo because of Affleck’s snub in Best Director?

E: I think that helps Argo. Affleck’s nominated in this category as one of the film’s producers, as is the ever-popular George Clooney. A win here is a way to award Affleck in spite of his Best Director snub.

J: I think that Argo will and should win here, even though I want a Silver Linings Playbook win.

E: I agree on what will and should win, but I’d go with Zero Dark Thirty for what I want to win. It was a better picture than Argo for me, personally.

J: Was it Zero Dark Thirty’s slower buildup to the suspense?

E: For me, yeah. Not to take anything away from Argo, but I felt like Zero Dark Thirty was better at building suspense. Argo’s all about making a mission work as quickly as possible, while Zero Dark Thirty took a lot of (frustrating) time and energy. People die or otherwise fall apart in Zero Dark Thirty in a way you don’t see in Argo.

J: I can totally understand that. I’d even go so far as to say I agree.

E: Still, I think Argo’s a deserving winner. Definitely a better choice than our last few Best Picture winners.

So, with up to 10 slots open for films in this category, what’s missing? And what maybe shouldn’t have been nominated, if anything?

J: Well, I think Skyfall was a great Bond film, and while I don’t think it could have won, I could have been nominated. I think if more people saw The Perks of Being a Wallflower, it could’ve had a shot too. With its acting nominations, I would’ve thought The Master might have landed a nomination here.

But what do you cut for any of those? Beasts of the Southern Wild? Possibly Les Misérables?

E: I’d be fine cutting Les Misérables and Beasts, and replacing them with Perks, along with maybe Skyfalland/or Looper.

J: You do have some love Looper. How much of that is love for Joseph Gordon-Levitt, though?

E: Maybe a little. But I think it was a really good film, period. Perks and Looper were my top two films of 2012.

Will Win: Argo
Should Win: Argo
Should Be Nominated: The Perks of Being a Wallflower

Best Director

Nominees
Ang Lee, Life of Pi
Benh Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild
David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
Michael Haneke, Amour
Steven Spielberg, Lincoln

E: Let’s talk about the Best Director category, a.k.a. The Evening’s Biggest Question Mark.

J: Yes. There’s not much to gripe about that hasn’t already been said elsewhere.

E: But let’s say it anyway.

Fun trivia fact for this category: since its inception in 1948, the Director’s Guild Award for Outstanding Achievement in Feature Film (the DGA’s Best Director equivalent) overwhelmingly goes on to win this category. This year marks the seventh time in its history that doesn’t happen, following Ben Affleck’s win a few weeks ago.

J: I can understand Kathryn Bigelow’s absence here because of the controversy surrounding “torture” inZero Dark Thirty, though the controversy’s really a stretch. But Ben Affleck? Snub. Snub. Argo had me scratching at my skin, trying to catch my breath.

E: Between the two, I think Bigelow actually did the better job. But Affleck’s clearly the snub everyone’s talking about. And really, I think Bigelow and Affleck missing here was less snubbing and more of a by-product of a year with a wide range of good films with no standout like we’ve seen in previous years.

J: I also can’t believe that there wasn’t a nomination for Les Misérables here, just because he had them sing live on screen.

E: Meh. Hooper’s direction was sloppy. He was overly reliant on close-ups, which bugged me to no end. I had issues with him winning a few years ago against David Fincher, so I have no problems with him being absent here.

J: I didn’t mind the close-ups.

E: I didn’t mind some of the close-ups. I think Anne Hathaway benefited from it for “I Dreamed A Dream.” But that’s the bulk of what he did—disorienting close-ups. It took away from the “epic” scale of the musical.

Of the nominees, who would you throw out?

J: Well, Beasts of the Southern Wild could take a backseat for me.

E: Since the precursors have largely gone to Affleck and Argo, it’s a guessing game, but who do you think will win here?

J: I think it’s a two-way race between Ang Lee and Steven Spielberg. I’d go with Lee.

E: Another fun fact: the last time Lee or Spielberg won, their respective films lost Best Picture. If either wins this year, it looks like that may happen again.

J: Oh, Brokeback Mountain. I was so mad that year.

E: I actually think the two may split the vote, and my off-the-wall prediction for the night goes here. I think Michael Haneke may pull an upset.

J: See, I’m wondering if that might happen with Spielberg and David O. Russell for Silver Linings Playbook. Lee, though, made a movie many thought couldn’t be made. Plus, aren’t most of Pi’s nominations in technical categories?

E: They are. And I think there’s a solid case to be made for Lee. Or Spielberg, who spent about a decade getting this film to screen.

J: That amount of time may be the kicker for Spielberg. I’m thinking the tech voters will go for Lee, though, and that could be the crucial factor in this race.

E: Regarding Haneke: he’s never been nominated, in spite of a lot of appreciation for his work. And Amouris based on subject matter that hit close to home for him. The man’s 70.

So you’re on board for a Lee win. Do you think he should win here, though?

J: Yeah, I’m going to go out on a limb and say that he should win, too. You?

E: Haneke feels like the best option here.

Will Win: Michael Haneke (Elijah), Ang Lee (Joseph)
Should Win: Michael Haneke (Elijah), Ang Lee (Joseph)
Should Be Nominated: Ben Affleck, Argo; Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty

Best Actor

Nominees
Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Denzel Washington, Flight
Hugh Jackman, Les Misérables
Joaquin Phoenix, The Master

E: Let’s just say it: Daniel Day-Lewis will almost definitely win.

J: Yes, and it’s almost unfair. It’s like he’s superhuman. He’s not even from this planet when he takes a role.

E: He’s very picky with his roles, which is part of what makes him so good.

J: It’s like, “Daniel Day-Lewis is acting this year. All other actors should stay home.” He embodied what I would have imagined Lincoln to be like in real life. It was obvious he studied the man.

E: He definitely preps for his roles. It’s also probably one of the biggest Oscar bait roles in recent years.

J: That’s true. I mean, it’s Abraham Lincoln. The other roles here just cannot compare.

E: Let’s imagine that the impossible happens, though, and someone else wins. Who could possibly steal it? I’m going to go with Hugh Jackman. He’s well-liked in the industry. He did a bang-up job as Jean Valjean.

J: But so many people have played Valjean on stage, and although I haven’t seen every single one, I’m not sure he did anything to the character that hasn’t been done a million other times.

E: Except sing live on film. Which Les Misérables’ PR team loves to remind people about constantly.

J: They sing every flippin’ night of the week.

E: Those performances are different from a film release. It’s also what makes Anne Hathaway’s performance stand out. In a theater, you’re singing to the rafters. With the film, there’s more room for nuance.

J: If there’s a dark horse, I’d put money on it being Joaquin Phoenix. Even though he criticizes this whole awards thing. I think he’s just an amazing actor, and I like rooting for the underdog.

E: Phoenix is definitely an underdog. I don’t see him coming close, though. I think, if anything, he just barely got this nomination over John Hawkes for The Sessions.

J: I would have nixed Bradley Cooper from this category.

E: Why?

J: Because when you compare the performances in that film, no one compares to Lawrence. I think there may have been a shot for Hawkes over Cooper. And the role Cooper’s nominated for doesn’t scream Best Actor.

E: I don’t buy your logic, regarding the performances in Silver Linings Playbook. Going by it, we should just have one nominated performance per film, period. There go away the nods for Tommy Lee Jones and Sally Field for Lincoln.

J: I just don’t like Cooper, I guess. I think a million guys could have played that role.

E: The role was originally intended for Mark Wahlberg.

J: And it would’ve been the same.

E: I actually like Cooper in the role. Maybe it’s some residual affection I have for his role on Alias. But I think it’s much harder to do comedy well than it is to do drama, and I think Cooper nailed it.

J: Honestly, I think without the muscle of Harvey Weinstein, Cooper would not have a nomination.

Would you replace anyone in this category?

E: As much as I’d like to see Hawkes in this category, I can’t think of who I’d replace him with. I think we both know who you’d replace Hawkes with, though.

J: Uh-huh. We sure do.

Will Win: Daniel Day-Lewis
Should Win: Daniel Day-Lewis
Should Be Nominated: John Hawkes, The Sessions

Best Actress

Nominees

Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Naomi Watts, The Impossible
Quvenzhané Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild

E: Fun facts: at 85, Emmanuelle Riva is the oldest nominee in this category. If she wins, she’ll win on her 86th birthday, and she’ll be the oldest acting winner ever. Quvenzhané Wallis, meanwhile, is the youngest nominee ever in this category at nine. More interestingly, though: she’s nominated for a film she made when she was six.

J: Let’s talk about Quvenzhané. How aware of what you’re doing are you at six? I just don’t think the nomination was warranted, and there’s no way she’s going to win.

E: I think that, for a six-year-old, she gave an outstanding performance. The nomination is the win for her. She’s already in talks with Will Smith and Jay-Z to star in their new film adaptation of Annie, so she’s gotten something out of this.

J: I feel like this is one of the toughest categories to predict. There are arguments that can be made for the other four.

E: Yeah—let’s get to it.

J: Jennifer Lawrence was fantastic in a quirky, feel-good film. There’s a depth to her acting that isn’t there with everyone else. But she’s got a long career ahead of her, so as much as I want her to win, I’m not ready for her to win.

E: She definitely has more range than the other nominees here. This is also her second nomination in this category in three years.

J: Winter’s Bone? Now if that had come out this year, I would be rooting for her in that role.

E: Plus, she’s the hottest thing in Hollywood these days, thanks to the phenomenal success of The Hunger Games.

J: She was amazing. I’m torn because I want her to win, get up on stage and say some stupid, funny shit. But has she paid her dues?

E: I think the “long career” argument, by the way, actually works better for her biggest competition here. And screw dues. She did a remarkable job in a role written in mind for an older actress. I’m sure some voters will think she’s too young. She’s not.

J: I also think that Silver Linings Playbook, in an initial viewing, can be seen as something light that lacks depth. It plays as an R-rated comedy sometimes, and I think that might work against her. But she’s serious. Her range is amazing. And I’m just so conflicted.

E: If Lawrence doesn’t win, it’s got to be Chastain, right?

J: Jessica Chastain…I admire her grit in this movie, but there’s definitely a bit of depth missing to me.

E: It’s not your typical female role, particularly in regards to the type that win this category. There’s little back story and few standout moments typical of Best Actress-winning performances. In the scene discussing Bin Laden’s hiding place, though, her reaction when asked who “the girl” in the room is—“I’m the motherfucker that found this place, sir”—is probably my favorite single line from a performance this year.

J: I actually think Naomi Watts has a chance to sneak up and steal this from both Lawrence and Chastain, even though she’s almost dead for the second half of the film. That’s not hurting Anne Hathaway, though. Watts moved me. I was just sitting there the entire time, absorbing the struggle she went through.

E: There are plenty of actors who love her here. Reese Witherspoon basically wrote a public letter saying how Watts had her vote because she sympathized as a mother. What hurts is that she’s the film’s sole nominee.

J: I’d love to see any of the three win it.

E: If there’s someone who can come between Lawrence and Chastain, though, I think it may be Emmanuelle Riva. Amour made an impact in the nomination round this year. And it’s a devastating performance, without the histrionics of Watts’ performance.

J: I think the whole “torture” debate plays against Chastain, and the surface levity of the film plays against Lawrence. I’ll go with…Emmanuelle Riva winning.

E: I think Jennifer Lawrence will edge out Jessica Chastain just barely. I’d be fine with either of them winning, though.

Now who’s missing here? I’ll go ahead and say that I think Marion Cotillard was completely deserving of a nomination for Rust and Bone. I think it was a great, lived-in performance. I’d replace Wallis with Cotillard, ultimately. Otherwise, it’s a solid lineup this year.

Will Win: Jennifer Lawrence (Elijah), Emmanuelle Riva (Joseph)
Should Win: Jennifer Lawrence
Should Be Nominated: Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone

Best Supporting Actor

Nominees